Regime · Macro LS · set on the close of 25 Oct 2026

Invested, moderate size70% in crypto, the rest in gold and cash

Core 53%Satellite 18%Gold 15%Cash 15%

Long trend up, short trend down: a turn may be under way. Buyers have had the upper hand in recent weeks. Money flows and real interest rates point both ways.

Rotation: Steady.Share of the top 5 coins in the crypto market, stablecoins aside, over the last year (rising: the majors lead, falling: alt season)

TrendTransition

MomentumPositive

Macro backdropNeutral

Next reviewTuesday 27 OctEarlier if Bitcoin moves sharply.

Market state

Where the market sits against its long and short trend. The dots show the last 90 days; the trend state waits for a confirmed move.

TrendTransitionLong trend up, short trend down: a turn may be under way.

MomentumPositiveBuyers have had the upper hand in recent weeks.

Macro backdropNeutralMoney flows and real interest rates point both ways.

Track recordData to 25 Oct 2026

Macro LS+886%worst drop -34%

Bitcoin+72%worst drop -66%

Top 5+55%worst drop -66%

Satellite+461%worst drop -74%

Macro LS simulated after costs until 26 Oct 2026, live after. Top 5 and satellite: the two baskets held alone, before costs.

Allocation over timeCoreSatelliteGoldCashBitcoin short

Above zero: what the book holds (core, satellite, gold, cash). Below zero: the Bitcoin short in a bear market. The model's book (simulated).

Crypto vs the wider market

Do they move together, and is crypto keeping up?

How to read this: each chart is Total market cap and the market rebased to 0% at the start of the window. The lines wiggling together is Move together (same-day direction); the gap that opens is who's ahead. Swing size = how big crypto's moves are (beta); Kept pace? = the gap in points. Moving together is not the same as keeping up.

Crypto & the S&P 500

━ Total market cap −29%┈ S&P 500 +11%

Move together (correlation)loosely together · +0.46

Swing size (beta)1.4× the market↓ 1.6× · ↑ 1.0×

Kept pace? (relative return)lagged −39 pts

Crypto & the Nasdaq

━ Total market cap −29%┈ Nasdaq +12%

Move together (correlation)loosely together · +0.44

Swing size (beta)0.9× the market↓ 1.0× · ↑ 0.7×

Kept pace? (relative return)lagged −41 pts

Crypto & gold

━ Total market cap −29%┈ Gold −0%

Move together (correlation)loosely together · +0.23

Swing size (beta)0.3× the market↓ 0.3× · ↑ 0.2×

Kept pace? (relative return)lagged −28 pts

Crypto & the US dollar

━ Total market cap −29%┈ US dollar +3%

Move together (correlation)leans opposite · −0.21

Swing size (beta)1.6× the market (opposite)↓ -0.3× · ↑ -1.8×

Kept pace? (relative return)lagged −32 pts

Long-term value guide

Bitcoin vs its power-law fair value

undervalued

27% up the support to resistance band

Over its whole history Bitcoin's price has grown along a power law of time, a straight line on a log-price / log-age chart. The fair-value line is that fit; the band is where price has stayed about 98% of the time. It's a slow orientation of cheap vs expensive, not a price forecast.

Right of the dashed line is a forward projection.

Fit R² 0.914 over 4,930 daily points since 2013. A model, not advice.

Price now

$79.8k

Fair value

$118.0k

Price vs fair

−32% below

Cheaper than

72% of history

Today's band: $38.0k support · $118.0k fair · $588.5k resistance

Macro LS is a live xris.ai strategy. Simulated track record. Not investment advice.