The crypto fundamentals that actually predict price moves
Supply schedules, FDV/MC ratios, dev vitality, special events — the slow-moving substrate that shapes every chart. Here's what we track, and why.
Most crypto traders look at fundamentals the way most people look at flossing — they know they should, they intend to, and somehow they don't.
It's understandable. Fundamentals move slowly. The chart moves now. By the time a supply unlock matters, you've already taken five trades.
Our Fundamentals agent solves the discipline problem by always being on. It tracks the slow stuff continuously, and when something becomes time-relevant, it surfaces it. You don't have to remember to check.
Here's what we actually track and why each one matters.
Supply: the gravitational field of every token
The most predictive fundamental in crypto isn't price. It's future supply.
A token with 30% of its supply unlocking in the next 90 days is structurally selling pressure. It doesn't matter how good the chart looks — sellers will appear, on schedule, and it will weigh on the price. Inversely, a token that's already 95% circulating with no major unlocks ahead has cleared a key headwind.
We track three numbers per token:
- Circulating supply vs max supply (with the percentage circulating shown as a progress bar).
- FDV (Fully Diluted Valuation) vs Market cap, with the FDV/MC ratio.
- Upcoming unlocks — when, how much, and what category (team, investors, ecosystem).
The FDV/MC ratio gets bands:
- Below 1.5x — low overhang. The token is mostly circulating, future dilution is limited.
- 1.5x to 3x — moderate. Normal range for most large caps; manageable but worth tracking.
- Above 3x — high overhang. A lot of supply hasn't entered the market yet; price will face structural pressure as it unlocks.
When the dashboard shows a Supply block with FDV/MC: 4.2x · high overhang, it's flagging that even if the chart looks great, the structural setup has gravity pulling against it.
Vitality: is anyone actually building this?
A protocol with no commits in three months is dying, regardless of what the chart says. A protocol with accelerating dev activity is positioned to ship things that change its narrative.
The Vitality block scores tokens 0-100 based on:
- Commits in the last 4 weeks (with trend vs the previous 90 days).
- PRs merged in the last 4 weeks (a stronger signal than just commits — merged PRs require code review).
- Code churn (additions and deletions) — both volume and direction matter.
The output is a status label: healthy (active dev, trending up), moderate (active but flat), or inactive (concerning silence).
This is the kind of signal that shows up months before price catches up. Layer 2s with accelerating dev activity in early 2024 outperformed the index for the rest of the year. The signal was visible if you bothered to look.
We bother. The agent runs the metric weekly (Sundays, 05:00 UTC, when GitHub data is freshest) and the dashboard shows the score with its trend bar.
Special events: the catalyst calendar
Some events deserve a calendar entry rather than a news item. Halvings. Hard forks. Exchange listings. ETF approval decisions. Major conferences with announcements expected.
The Special Events block tracks them with:
- Upcoming — sorted by date, color-coded by proximity (red border within 7 days, amber within 30, default beyond).
- Past 30 days — historical context, which past catalysts already played out.
Each event has its type (Halving / Listing / Fork / Conference / etc), an impact_size qualifier when known, and a one-line title describing what's expected.
The reason this lives in Fundamentals (and not News) is that it's scheduled — these aren't reactive items, they're known dates that the market is positioning around. They belong on the strategic side of the agent.
Category context: relative strength
A token down 5% on a day where its category is down 15% is actually outperforming. The chart looks ugly, the relative position is strong.
The Category Context block shows each token's primary category (Layer 1, DeFi, RWA, etc.) and its performance vs the category over 24h, 7d, and 30d windows. It also shows the token's rank within its category — being #2 in DeFi by recent performance is a different story from being #50.
When you're trying to understand whether a move is token-specific or category-wide, this is the first place to look.
News history: what already happened
Finally, the News History block shows a token's pinned news from the last 6 months — only the high-impact items that actually moved markets, not the daily chatter.
This is your "how did we get here?" view. Has this token been narrative-heavy lately? Did the recent price action follow a major announcement? You see it in two clicks.
How fundamentals interact with the rest of the agents
Fundamentals don't fire trade signals on their own. What they do is modulate the other agents' outputs:
- A bullish technical setup on a token with a 30-day unlock at 18% of circulating supply gets a yellow flag from Risk.
- A bearish news flow on a token with strong vitality and recent positive developer momentum is a different story than the same flow on an inactive project.
- A breakout into resistance becomes more interesting if it's happening into a special event window.
This is what the merge layer does: combines the slow signals (Fundamentals) with the fast ones (S/R, News, Macro) so you see the full setup, not just the chart.
What this isn't
We're not trying to value tokens like equities. There's no DCF. We're not predicting a "fair price." We're surfacing the structural inputs that any serious trader should be aware of before committing capital — supply curves, dev health, catalyst calendar, relative strength.
These don't tell you what to trade. They tell you what you're walking into.
Where to see it
Open any token in the dashboard and click into it. The Fundamentals tab shows the full agent output: Category Context, Supply (with unlock schedule), Vitality, Special Events, News History.
The agent runs continuously. By the time you look, it has already done the homework.
For more on how the agents work together, read why we built multi-agent in the first place. For the news pipeline that complements Fundamentals, see how we dedupe and rank news.